The dashboard gives you the reading. These give you the work. Each report takes a single claim, tests it against the deepest historical record available, and states plainly what the data supports and what it doesn't, including where it contradicts the thesis it was meant to support. Conditions, not predictions.
Does the money supply actually outgrow the real economy? The claim survives, but not on the timeline the thesis implies. M2 as a share of GDP was flat to falling from 1959 through 2007. The break is 2008, and it has not reverted through 2026 Q2. That is a narrower claim than "since the late twentieth century," and a far harder one to argue with.
Read the report →Why won't long yields fall? Because it was never an inflation story. Since the end of 2022 the 10-year rose 80bp. Of that, 83bp is real yield, while inflation expectations fell 3bp. The 30-year real yield hit a series record of 3.03% in July 2026. Meanwhile auctions are not failing: this is a repricing of duration, not a buyers' strike.
Read the report →The reports test one claim each. This lets you test your own. Chart, index or divide 39 series from the Federal Reserve, BEA, BLS, Census and Treasury, with recessions and turning points marked, or start from one of nine preset questions. It warns you when a comparison mixes inflation-adjusted and nominal dollars, and it refuses to update if a single value differs from FRED.
Open the workbench →The Fed watches PCE; most people hear about CPI. When the two split, this shows why. It takes core PCE minus core CPI apart category by category using BEA’s detailed spending data and the matching BLS series: what is priced the same in both, what is weighted differently, and what only one index counts. It refuses to update unless BEA, BLS and FRED agree month by month.
Open the workbench →