Inside the Asset Bubble

The evidence behind the indicators.

The dashboard gives you the reading. These give you the work. Each report takes a single claim, tests it against the deepest historical record available, and states plainly what the data supports and what it doesn't, including where it contradicts the thesis it was meant to support. Conditions, not predictions.

Indicator test 01 Valuation

Liquidity vs. Output

Does the money supply actually outgrow the real economy? The claim survives, but not on the timeline the thesis implies. M2 as a share of GDP was flat to falling from 1959 through 2007. The break is 2008, and it has not reverted through 2026 Q2. That is a narrower claim than "since the late twentieth century," and a far harder one to argue with.

TestsM2SL vs GDPC1
Span1959 – 2026, quarterly
BehindBuffett Indicator
Key number0.708 vs 0.542 mean
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Indicator test 02 Credit & Curve

The Debt Is the Rate

Why won't long yields fall? Because it was never an inflation story. Since the end of 2022 the 10-year rose 80bp. Of that, 83bp is real yield, while inflation expectations fell 3bp. The 30-year real yield hit a series record of 3.03% in July 2026. Meanwhile auctions are not failing: this is a repricing of duration, not a buyers' strike.

TestsReal yields vs breakevens
Span11,080 auctions since 1979
BehindYield Curve
Key number30Y real 3.03% record
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